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能源价格到底怎么了?

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作者:RSM我们律师事务所


能源相关商品(原油)的成本, 天然气, 今年煤炭价格大幅上涨, 特别是从9月初开始. As economies around the world continue to emerge from COVID-19-induced lockdowns, demand has rebounded more sharply than expected and helped fuel the recent rally. 然而, an inability and/or unwillingness of producers of all three commodities to markedly increase output are tipping the scales even further, and peak seasonal demand across much of the northern hemisphere is still months away.

图1

能源价格飙升

Natural gas is up more than 200% from the start of the year; a barrel of oil is 55% more expensive, 煤炭价格飙升超过250%,达到历史新高.


首先是气体

Natural gas is at the forefront of the energy crunch and has risen in part due to weather-related phenomena in the U.S. 和国外. The deep freeze in Texas earlier this year created excess demand and resulted in U.S. 库存下降. 然后, 飓风艾达, 关闭了墨西哥湾几乎所有的石油生产, 进一步打破了供需平衡.

在欧洲和亚洲部分地区, a particularly cold and long heating season last winter has left gas storage levels well below five-year lows, and pandemic-induced construction and maintenance delays have hindered the ability to meaningfully boost supply. 这个问题在英国等地更加严重, 24%以上的电力是通过风力涡轮机产生的. Abnormally light winds in recent weeks forced officials to use gas and coal-fired plants to make up the difference, adding to already-high demand and putting additional upward pressure on prices. 

当天然气价格昂贵时,石油也可以

可供选择的发电方式主要是石油和煤. 西德克萨斯中质油(WTI), 国内石油基准, 今年截至9月底,该指数上涨了近55%, 最近, 甚至达到了2014年以来的最高水平, 随着投资者越来越多地押注美国股市.S. producers will be reluctant to add significantly to supply — a situation we discuss in more detail below. 分别, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries together with Russia (OPEC+) decided earlier this month against increasing supply beyond its previously agreed-upon 400,尽管来自美国的呼声很高,但石油日产量仍达到了1万桶.S. 和其他国家提高产量多达80万桶/天. Not only is it still fresh in many a mind that oil prices in March 2020 turned negative for the first time in history (a scenario unlikely to repeat, but scary nonetheless when your country relies almost exclusively on petroleum revenues), but chronic under投资 in infrastructure in recent years amid a global push to “go green” has left some cartel members in a position where they may be able to pump more oil out of the ground, 但将这些额外的原油投放到市场可能并不容易.

然后是煤

There have been concerted efforts among many countries to reduce coal use and the resulting carbon emissions. 然而, 煤炭仍占全球电力供应的40%左右, 一些国家现在正在改变削减计划——至少暂时是这样. 值得注意的是, China did an about-face recently after coal inventories used in its power plants reached 10-year lows, leading to rolling blackouts and an unexpected decline in manufacturing activity last month. Despite efforts to procure coal from several other countries after it stopped buying a large portion of its supply from Australia late last year amid political tensions, many Chinese firms have turned to diesel generators as a means of supplementing coal use amid mandatory rationings. A continued rise in energy prices could put further inflationary pressure on goods coming out of the world’s largest exporting nation.

不过,不要指望供应方面会有所缓解. 尽管煤炭需求激增, 矿商提高供应的能力和意愿有限. 以前关闭的矿山需要大量的时间和投资才能重新开放, 考虑到清洁燃料的全球趋势, 这不是一个很多人(如果有的话)愿意冒的赌注.

经济的影响

You may be feeling the pinch in your energy bills; however, costs have not risen in the U.S. 这种程度在许多其他国家都能看到, thanks to greater storage capacity and our position as one of the world’s largest producers of all three energy commodities. 也, the cash cushion many households have from several rounds of government stimulus checks better positions the U.S. 消费者能够承受最近能源成本的上涨.

仍然, 更高的能源成本相当于向消费者征税, 谁占了美国国内生产总值的最大份额.S. An extended period of higher prices could not only further increase inflation, 但也开始拖累经济增长, 这种情况被称为滞胀. 虽然我们不排除这种可能性, 我们认为这种情况将会持续很长时间,而且会过度, 哪个不是我们的基本情况. 如下面的图2所示, 预计供需将在2022年初趋同, so we’re cautiously optimistic that price pressures should begin to alleviate early next year.

这对外国经济的影响与美国没有太大的不同.S., except our domestic production and storage capabilities better enable us to weather severe price swings. 尽管如此,全球化已经使美国经济陷入困境.S. 易受国外经济状况影响.

图2

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance - million barrels per day

投资的影响

能源bt365游戏一直是美国最大的能源bt365游戏&P 500 Index’s best performer so far this year, but that may not be the case next year. Starting in 2016, companies ramped up efforts to drill new wells in tandem with rising oil prices. 已钻但未完井(DUCs)的数量在2018年末达到顶峰, creating a cushion that enabled companies to maintain or increase output this year without having to meaningfully boost capital expenditures. This in turn allowed them to focus on enhancing shareholder value through increased dividends, 回购和减债. 然而, firms have drawn on those reserves to the point where levels have returned to near 2016 lows. 因此, 产油国明年可能需要加大钻井力度才能增加产量, 甚至维持, 电流输出. With the cost of a new well at roughly $7 million plus ongoing operational and service costs, it’s not a minor outlay; however, 如果目前接近每桶70美元的价格水平持续下去, they could continue to return capital to shareholders despite the need for additional drilling.

结论

Higher energy prices are likely to result in above-average inflation over the next few months. While consumers are already feeling its effects via higher energy and food costs, core inflation — which strips out those two components — may see a more modest uptick going forward. 因此, the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears likely to stick to its previously communicated plan to slowly withdraw liquidity through the first half of next year. 这将为美国提供持续的支持.S. economy while market forces continue to work through the supply-demand imbalances. 然而, 能源和食品价格上涨, 它们应该持续下去吗, 可能会抑制经济增长, 从而降低了美联储进一步收紧政策的必要性. So, 而消费者当然希望价格尽快下降, 无论价格保持高位还是回落,投资者都能从中受益, bearing in mind the uncomfortable position in which many firms in the energy space currently find themselves.

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This article was written by Derek Vasko, CFA and originally appeared on 2021-10-18.
2021年RSM us LLP. 保留所有权利.
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